The situation in Russia and Ukraine may push up nickel prices and raise the cost of electric vehicles

February 28, 2022

China news, Jingwei, Feb. 25 (Reuters) - according to the news on the 25th on the Chinese website of Reuters, the Market Research Institute trendforce released a report on Friday that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is heating up. Although the export of Russian nickel products is not affected at this stage, if the relationship between Russia and Ukraine continues to deteriorate, it may affect the global nickel supply and push up the nickel price in the short term, And further increase the cost pressure of terminals such as electric vehicle industry.

In China, which accounts for more than half of the global electric vehicle market, the price of electrolytic nickel is likely to continue to rise.

According to the report, trendforce pointed out that the output of nickel ore in Russia accounts for about 9% of the total global output (including low, medium and high-grade nickel), ranking behind Indonesia and the Philippines; Nickel is the upstream key raw material for the manufacture of electric vehicle power battery. It is mainly used in the manufacture of ternary cathode material in power battery.

The report points out that in the medium and long term, since most new nickel smelting and processing projects in recent years are mainly located in Indonesia and other places, Indonesia's nickel ore output accounted for about 37% of the world's total output in 2021. With Indonesia's centralized production of projects related to this raw material, it is expected to improve the supply and demand of nickel in the second half of this year.

From the supply situation of manufacturers, trendforce pointed out that among the top five large nickel mining manufacturers in the world, Norilsk, a Russian operator, supplies about 9% of the world's nickel raw materials. Its nickel ore production and processing are mainly located in Russia, accounting for about 90% of Russia's overall output, and its high-grade nickel output accounts for 22% of the world, ranking first in the world.

According to the report, trendforce believes that according to the current situation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, if Europe and the United States impose sanctions on Russia, the flow direction of Russian nickel may change due to the high concentration of Norilsk production and processing, that is, the Russian nickel originally flowing into Europe and the United States may flow into China in large quantities, so the probability of market share decline caused by sanctions is small.

The report also said that trendforce said that at present, the market share of high nickel ternary cathode materials in ternary cathode materials has increased rapidly. With the accelerated penetration of new energy vehicles in China, Europe and the United States, the market demand for power lithium batteries is strong, and the overall nickel inventory continues to decline. At present, the global refined nickel inventory is only 100000 tons.

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